Finance Tools
Crop Price Drop Impact Calculator
Estimate how a crop price drop affects revenue, profit, and break-even cushion based on yield and costs.
Model how a crop price drop impacts revenue and profit assuming yield and costs stay the same. Use this as a fast downside-risk check.
Bushels/tons/pounds—any unit works if price matches.
Your expected selling price before the shock.
Includes operating costs (and optionally fixed costs). Keep consistent for both scenarios.
Example: 15 means price becomes 85% of baseline.
New price
$4.25 / unit
Baseline: $5.00 · Drop: 15.00%
Revenue (baseline → new)
$250,000 → $212,500
Revenue change: -$37,500
Profit (baseline → new)
$70,000 → $32,500
Profit change: -$37,500
Break-even price
$3.60 / unit
Cushion (baseline)
$1.40 / unit
Cushion (new)
$0.65 / unit
Margin (baseline → new)
28% → 15.3%
Costs used
$180,000
Tip: Stress test multiple drop levels (10%, 20%, 30%) and compare cushion vs break-even.
How it works
- Revenue = yield × price.
- Profit = revenue − costs (costs assumed unchanged under the price shock).
- Break-even price = costs ÷ yield.
- Cushion = (price − break-even price) per unit.
FAQ
What if yield also drops?
This tool isolates price risk. For combined shocks, reduce yield and run again (or use a stress-test tool).
Do costs change when prices drop?
Usually not immediately. Over time, you can cut variable inputs—try adjusting cost per unit to reflect that.
How should I choose the drop %?
Use historical volatility, forward curves, or conservative scenarios like 10%/20%/30%.
How to use this crop price drop impact calculator
- Enter expected yield (units) and baseline crop price.
- Enter total costs (or cost per unit).
- Enter a price drop (%) or a new (lower) price.
- Compare baseline vs new revenue and profit impact.
Example
A farm expects 50,000 units at $5.00/unit with total costs $180,000. A 15% price drop is modeled.
- Baseline revenue = 50,000 × $5.00 = $250,000
- New price = $5.00 × (1 − 0.15) = $4.25
- New revenue = 50,000 × $4.25 = $212,500 (−$37,500)
- Profit change = −$37,500 (costs assumed unchanged)
More tools in Finance Tools
- Farm Break-Even Price Calculator
Calculate the minimum crop price per unit needed to break even based on costs and expected yield.
- Farm Break-Even Yield Calculator
Calculate the minimum crop yield needed to break even based on total costs and expected crop price.
- Farm Loan Stress Test Calculator
Stress test a farm loan by simulating interest-rate increases and cash-flow drops to see how payments and DSCR change.
- Farm Debt Risk Calculator
Estimate farm debt risk using key ratios like debt-to-asset, debt-to-income, and DSCR to flag financial stress.