Finance Tools

Fixed-Price Contract Cost Shock Calculator

Estimate profit or loss for a fixed-price contract when unit costs increase, including break-even cost shock thresholds.

Estimate profit or loss for a fixed-price contract when unit costs increase. This is a quick way to see margin compression and break-even cost shock limits.

Contract terms

Revenue per unit is locked.

Total units you must deliver.

Your expected cost before the shock.

Cost shock

Example: 8 means +8%.

Calculated from the shock inputs.

Results

Per-unit

Profit/unit before: $25.00
Profit/unit after: $17.40
Change: -$7.60

Total

Total profit before: $125,000
Total profit after: $87,000
Total change: -$38,000

Break-even shock limit

Max cost increase (per unit) to avoid losses:
$25.00 (26.32%)

If cost increases exceed this, profit per unit becomes negative under the fixed contract price.

Margin compresses. You are absorbing the full cost shock.

How it works

  • New cost = baseline cost × (1 + % increase) or baseline cost + $ increase.
  • Profit/unit = fixed price − unit cost.
  • Total profit = profit/unit × contract quantity.
  • Break-even cost shock limit occurs when profit/unit = 0.

FAQ

Is this the same as “cost overrun”?
It’s closely related. Overrun usually refers to actual costs exceeding plan; this tool models that effect under a fixed price.

What about change orders?
This assumes no renegotiation. If you can renegotiate scope or price, use pass-through and contract escalation tools too.

How to use this fixed-price contract cost shock calculator

  1. Enter the fixed contract price per unit and the contract quantity.
  2. Enter your baseline unit cost.
  3. Enter the expected cost increase (% or $ per unit).
  4. Review new profit per unit, total profit, and break-even cost shock limits.

Example

A contract pays $120/unit for 5,000 units. Baseline cost is $95/unit. Costs rise by 8%.

More tools in Finance Tools

← Back to Finance Tools

← Back to ToolPhi Home